Bitcoin’s downturn may persist until late 2024 if historical cycles hold, with drawdowns averaging 80% from peaks.
Grayscale analysts suggest Bitcoin’s current bear market could last until September or October, aligning with a traditional four-year cycle. Previous downturns typically bottomed about a year after market peaks, with drawdowns averaging 80%.
The firm notes Bitcoin’s evolving correlation with macroeconomic factors, including U.S. economic growth and real interest rates. If the Federal Reserve avoids further rate hikes and the economy remains resilient, Bitcoin may have already reached its low.
Performance increasingly reflects broader financial conditions rather than crypto-specific trends, marking a shift toward maturity as an asset class.