Tesla’s Q2 2026 earnings face 74% beat probability as FSD subscriptions and margin recovery bolster expectations.
Tesla releases its Q2 2026 earnings today, with consensus estimates at $0.53 earnings per share on $26.36 billion in revenue. Prediction markets assign a 74% chance of a beat, driven by a 51% year-over-year increase in Full Self-Driving subscriptions to 1.28 million and a 42% jump in high-margin Services revenue.
In Q1 2026, Tesla reported $0.41 EPS, surpassing estimates by 14.14%, alongside $22.39 billion in revenue, up 15.78% year-over-year. Automotive gross margins have rebounded, and free cash flow more than doubled last quarter, signaling operational leverage despite a 12% decline in Energy Generation & Storage revenue.
Shares closed Monday at $378.93, down 15.74% year-to-date, lagging broader tech sector performance. Analysts project a 12-month target of $425, with a bull case reaching $488, reflecting potential upside from current levels.