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Everybody across the stock and bond markets breathed a huge sigh of relief when the consumer and producer price index numbers for June were released. The reality is that those great prints were largely due to plummeting gasoline prices, as the U.S. and Iran had temporarily halted hostilities under a signed memorandum of understanding. Now, after a stretch that recently included 10 straight bombing attacks on Iran, and despite the Iranian foreign ministry saying that discussions could continue, it looks like President Trump is prepared to go for the knockout punch.
Regardless of the outcome, the Bank of America team argues that inflation is still well above the Federal Reserve’s target and that the right move is to start raising rates soon. In a recent research report, the Bank of America’s Global Research Bureau of Economic Analysis team said this: In our latest US economic weekly, we argued that the Federal Reserve should resume raising rates rather than remain on hold. A key pillar of our view is that underlying inflation remains meaningfully above the Fed’s 2% target.