Analysts expect UK inflation to ease slightly in June, driven by lower fuel prices and softer core components.
The UK June Consumer Price Index report will be released at 0600 GMT, with median estimates pointing to a slight easing in inflation. Headline CPI is forecast at +0.1% month-on-month and +2.7% year-on-year, down from +0.2% and +2.8% in May, respectively. Core CPI is expected at +0.2% m/m and +2.5% y/y, compared to +0.3% and +2.6% previously.
The anticipated decline is largely attributed to lower petrol and diesel prices, while core inflation risks remain skewed to the downside. Analysts highlight transport services, package holidays, and hotels as key contributors to the deceleration, though volatility in airfares could offset some of the easing.
The data is unlikely to significantly alter the Bank of England’s outlook, as geopolitical tensions, such as the US-Iran conflict, continue to pose risks to inflation expectations.