Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent crude could surge to $120 per barrel by Q4 2026 if Strait of Hormuz closures persist amid geopolitical tensions.
Goldman Sachs warned Brent crude could climb to $120 per barrel by Q4 2026 if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue, tightening global oil supply. The bank cited reduced Persian Gulf flows, below 45% of pre-war levels, and thin inventories as key risks.
The bank’s base case projects Brent at $80 in Q4 2026 and $75 in 2027, but prolonged disruptions could push averages to $100 through 2027. Recent prices peaked at $90 on July 19 before easing to $88.47 on ceasefire optimism.
Diesel market tightness and Red Sea threats add further upside pressure, while US-Iran de-escalation could reverse gains.