Quick Read – TSLA’s 346 trailing P/E and 15% YTD decline contradict Wall Street’s Buy consensus and $425 price target. – Q1 margin gains relied on one-time warranty items, capex surged 67%, and prediction markets assign just 16% odds to Optimus scaling this year. – A Q2 miss…
low $0.54 EPS consensus on July 22 could send shares toward the AI model’s $346 fair value estimate. – Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Tesla didn’t make the cut. Grab the names FREE today
At $380.84, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) looks stretched, even as Wall Street consensus leans Buy. The stock is down 15.32% year to date while the S&P 500 is up 9%, signaling the market is repricing Tesla’s fundamentals faster than analyst targets adjust. Tesla remains the world’s most valuable automaker, yet the story supporting a 346 trailing P/E rests on Robotaxi, Optimus, and FSD scaling into standalone businesses.
Vehicles drove most of the $22.39 billion in Q1 2026 revenue, and the autonomy narrative has cracked over the last two quarters. Why Bulls Still See $460 on the Table Q1 2026 looked strong. Automotive gross margin expanded to 21.1% from 16.2% year over year, operating income surged 135.84%, and free cash flow more than doubled to $1.44 billion.