Rising geopolitical risks and oil price correlation drive the Indian Rupee to fresh lows against the US dollar.
The Indian Rupee extended losses to record lows against the US dollar as escalating US-Iran tensions tightened its inverse correlation with oil prices. The conflict’s persistence is expected to maintain downward pressure on the INR, with relief unlikely without clear de-escalation.
The US dollar remains rangebound but supported by lingering inflation risks tied to geopolitical uncertainty. Fed rate hike probabilities for July stand at 14%, while September odds exceed 60%. The Rupee’s structural bearish trend against the dollar continues, with dip-buyers targeting technical levels to push USD/INR higher.
Technical analysis shows USD/INR breaking above the 96.10 resistance level, with buyers piling into new highs. A pullback could see support at the trendline and former resistance zones.