Goldman Sachs estimates China’s actual gold buying may exceed reported figures by nearly five times, reinforcing structural demand trends.
Goldman Sachs suggests China’s central bank gold purchases are significantly higher than official reserve data indicates. The bank estimates May acquisitions reached 48 tonnes, nearly five times the reported 10 tonnes, while June saw a 15-tonne increase, the largest in over two years.
This trend aligns with a broader shift toward reserve diversification away from dollar assets, supporting Goldman’s $4,900 per troy ounce forecast for end-2026. Earlier, Bernstein revised its 2026 target to $4,533, citing similar demand dynamics and muted Fed rate expectations.
The bank views accelerating central bank buying, particularly from China, as a structural support for gold prices despite near-term Fed policy pressures. Private investor demand could further bolster prices if geopolitical risks persist.