UBS forecasts DRAM supply and demand will not balance until mid-2028 as AI-driven HBM consumption tightens wafer capacity.
High-bandwidth memory (HBM) demand for AI infrastructure is consuming 30% of total DRAM wafer capacity by 2027, leaving supply at just 60% of projected demand. The shift toward HBM production limits conventional DRAM output, sustaining elevated prices.
New semiconductor fabs require 12-24 months to reach peak output, delaying relief. TrendForce projects HBM wafer input will rise from 22% of total DRAM wafer capacity in 2026 to 30% by 2027. Morgan Stanley expects memory to account for 40% of AI capital expenditures by 2030.
The imbalance reflects long-term AI-driven demand, with cloud providers securing HBM capacity years in advance. Analysts see no meaningful supply correction before Q2 2028.