A viral claim overstates collectibles returns by ignoring dividends, liquidity, and survivor bias in graded card indexes.
A social media clip claimed Pokémon cards returned 3,261% over 20 years, outpacing the S&P 500’s 421%. However, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) delivered 509.56% in the same period, including dividends and liquidity, closing at $751.97 on July 14, 2026.
The collectibles index tracks only top-graded cards, not random $10 packs, creating survivor bias. Over the same window, individual stocks like Amazon, NVIDIA, and Tesla outperformed the card index. The 10-year SPY return stands at 248.34%.
Analysts criticized the comparison as misleading, noting it omits real market factors while exaggerating niche asset performance.