Traders now assign a 32% chance of the crypto bill passing by year-end, down 30 percentage points since January.
Polymarket traders have slashed the odds of the Clarity Act passing this year to 32%, the lowest since the market launched in January. The decline reflects stalled Senate negotiations over ethics provisions, a key hurdle for bipartisan support.
The bill’s probability peaked at 82% in February but has fallen steadily since May as legislative deadlines tighten. Lawmakers continue to debate updated text, but unresolved Democratic concerns over ethics rules remain the primary obstacle.
Industry executives argue the legislation would clarify SEC and CFTC jurisdiction, reducing regulatory uncertainty and encouraging onshore crypto activity.