New 25% US tariffs on Brazilian goods take effect 22 July, with potential to rise to 37.5%, but exemptions limit economic impact.
The United States will impose a 25% tariff on Brazilian exports starting 22 July, with a pending investigation possibly raising it to 37.5%. The move follows Section 301 trade investigations, though over 30% of exports are exempt, mitigating economic damage.
Brazil’s trade resilience stems from diversified partnerships in Asia and the Middle East, offsetting US tariffs. Bilateral trade has declined since mid-2025 due to prior 50% IEEPA tariffs, but overall export growth remains steady.
Politically, the tariffs could bolster President Lula’s re-election campaign against Flavio Bolsonaro, framing the dispute as a nationalist issue ahead of October’s vote.