Second-quarter expansion falls short of 4.5% estimates as property downturn and oil shocks weigh on recovery.
China’s economy expanded 4.3% year-on-year in the second quarter, below the 4.5% forecast and down from 5.0% in Q1. The pace marks the slowest growth since late 2022, reflecting mounting pressure from a prolonged property slump and external shocks, including oil price volatility linked to geopolitical tensions.
Analysts had expected a modest slowdown but not the sharp deceleration seen in investment, which contrasts with resilient industrial output and exports. Retail sales rebounded in June, rising 1.0% after a 0.6% decline in May, while industrial production accelerated to 5.3% from 4.5% in the prior month.
Policymakers face limited options to stabilize growth, with expectations leaning toward targeted fiscal measures rather than aggressive monetary easing. The upcoming Politburo meeting will be closely watched for signals on counter-cyclical adjustments, though a major stimulus shift remains unlikely.