Moderna Inc (NASDAQ:MRNA, XETRA:0QF) is expected to report second quarter results on July 31, with investors focused on the impact of seasonal COVID-19 vaccine demand and updates on the company’s late-stage pipeline, including anticipated Phase III melanoma data.
Jefferies analysts expect a largely uneventful earnings report after Moderna previously guided for second-quarter revenue of $50 million to $100 million, down from $389 million in the first quarter, reflecting the seasonal nature of COVID vaccine sales
The analysts forecast a loss of $1.99 per share on revenue of about $100 million, compared with consensus expectations for a loss of $1.97 per share. “COVID sales are mostly weighted to H2 2026,” Jefferies wrote, noting that lower vaccination rates year-over-year are also expected to weigh on near-term revenue. The firm expects management could reiterate its 2026 revenue outlook for growth of up to 10% year over year, which would imply revenue of more than $2.1 billion. Jefferies said potential upside to Moderna’s 2026 sales outlook could come from stabilization in US COVID revenue, which declined from approximately $1.2 billion in 2025.
The firm expects international partnerships, including those in Canada, Australia and the UK, to contribute to growth and help create a more balanced revenue mix between US and ex-US markets. Investors are also watching Moderna’s pipeline progress, particularly Phase III data for mRNA-4157, the company’s personalized cancer vaccine candidate being evaluated in combination with Merck & Co.’s Keytruda in melanoma. Jefferies highlighted the upcoming Phase III INTerpath-001 trial data as a major potential catalyst for the stock, with results expected in the second half of 2026.