Truckload and LTL rates rose 16% above a 2018 baseline in Q2, with further gains expected in Q3 amid diesel costs and driver shortages.
Truckload and less-than-truckload rates reached a 14-quarter high in the second quarter, driven by capacity constraints and higher diesel fuel prices. The TD Cowen-AFS Freight Index showed a 16% increase above the January 2018 baseline, up 6.6 percentage points from Q1 and 10.1 points year-over-year.
The index is projected to climb to 17.7% above the baseline in Q3, marking an 11.7-point annual increase. Over 48,000 non-compliant drivers exited the industry in the past year, while small carriers face margin pressures from fuel costs, limiting capacity.
Supply-side corrections favor larger carriers, as smaller operators struggle to offset rising expenses through surcharges, potentially keeping rates elevated.