XAU/USD stabilizes around $4,020 as traders await June CPI figures, with Fed rate hike bets rising on inflation concerns.
Gold prices hovered near $4,020 on Tuesday, recovering slightly after dipping to a two-week low of $3,983 earlier in the session. The metal remained rangebound as investors awaited the US June Consumer Price Index data, a key driver for Federal Reserve policy expectations.
Headline CPI is forecast to ease to 3.8% year-over-year from 4.2% in May, while the monthly reading is expected to decline 0.1%. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, is projected to rise 0.2% month-over-month and 2.8% annually, matching prior readings. Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated a hot core inflation print could prompt near-term policy tightening.
Market pricing now reflects a 40% chance of a July rate hike, up from 26% a week ago, while September odds stand at 74%. Attention will shift to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony later in the session, alongside remarks from other Fed officials.