Brent and WTI crude futures rise over 3% amid disputed Strait of Hormuz transit data and escalating Gulf tensions.
Brent and WTI crude futures surged more than 3% on Monday as weekend escalations in the Gulf reignited concerns over Strait of Hormuz supply disruptions. The move reflects a revived risk premium, though analysts remain divided on whether the flare-up signals a full truce collapse or a contained escalation within a fragile ceasefire.
Conflicting transit reports added to market uncertainty. Kpler shiptracking data showed just six vessels crossing the strait on Sunday, the lowest in five weeks, while a U.S. official cited by Axios estimated closer to 20 vessels coordinated with the military. Despite a June rebound, global supply remains 9.4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels, amplifying sensitivity to any disruption signals.
Traders are weighing the impact of Iran’s expanded strikes and U.S. counteractions, with President Donald Trump asserting the strait remains open to commercial traffic. The muted yet volatile price reaction suggests markets are pricing in heightened risk without fully anticipating a prolonged shutdown.