Volume in politics and economics-related prediction trades has plummeted as sports and parlay-style wagers dominate platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.
Prediction markets have shifted sharply toward entertainment-driven trading since early 2024, with sports and parlay-style bets now accounting for the majority of activity. Political and economic trades on Polymarket and Kalshi have dropped to under 20% and 5% of volume, respectively, down from 73% and 96% during the 2024 U.S. election cycle.
The trend reflects broader user behavior changes, as recreational traders favor high-risk, high-reward parlay products over traditional event-based wagers. Analysts warn that request-for-quote (RFQ) parlay models may introduce information asymmetry, potentially undermining prediction markets’ role as truth-seeking mechanisms.
Despite concerns, the shift could drive deeper liquidity and wider adoption, as increased recreational volume attracts new participants.