ING expects Canada’s June employment gain to drop sharply to 10k while wage growth rises to 3.6%, shaping BoC policy caution.
Canada’s June jobs report is forecast to show hiring slowing to 10k from May’s 88k, with unemployment steady at 6.6%. Wage growth for permanent employees is expected to rise to 3.6% from 3.2%, adding inflationary pressure.
The Bank of Canada faces a high bar for a hawkish shift, with benign inflation and USMCA-related risks limiting rate hike prospects. Oil price stability and labor market trends further temper expectations for policy tightening.
ING sees near-term CAD support but forecasts USD/CAD remaining above 1.40 in the coming months due to lingering trade uncertainties and risk premiums.