Citi expects Brent crude to average $75 in Q3 2026, citing potential US-Iran negotiations and Hormuz reopening as key drivers.
Citi projects Brent crude to average $75 a barrel in the third quarter of 2026, reflecting expectations of a US-Iran deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The bank attributes this outlook to a temporary risk premium rather than a sustained price shift.
The forecast steps down to $70 in Q4 2026 and $65 through 2027, assuming geopolitical tensions ease. Citi highlights Trump’s focus on equity and bond market stability as a catalyst for renewed negotiations, which could flatten backwardation and reduce refined product cracks.
Oil markets have stabilized near Citi’s base case, moving away from extreme blockade scenarios as tensions between Iran and the US show signs of de-escalation.