NBP to keep rates at 3.75%, inflation momentum near zero
Poland’s central bank is expected to maintain its current interest rate of 3.75%. This decision is driven by inflation momentum being near zero and energy-driven disinflation.
The earlier expectations of a rate hike have been unwound, and some analysts now discuss potential easing from Q4 or March. Forwards have already reflected the expected rate hold.
The neutral guidance from the MPC points to underperformance of the Polish Zloty. With inflation under control, the focus shifts to potential future easing.