OCBC maintains Brent forecasts at USD75 by end-2026 amid persistent geopolitical tensions and a stronger US Dollar.
Brent crude prices are expected to decline gradually, with OCBC Bank forecasting USD75 per barrel by the end of 2026 and USD71 by mid-2027. The outlook reflects a persistent security premium tied to US-Iran tensions and disruption risks in the Strait of Hormuz.
Recent trading saw oil and tech-led equity weakness drive the US Dollar higher and global bond yields up, while gold prices retreated. The bank notes that the pace of decline will be slower than the sharp correction observed in the second quarter of 2026.
Geopolitical risks remain elevated, though full-scale US-Iran conflict is deemed unlikely due to political pressure to contain oil prices ahead of November elections. Economic pressure is expected to dominate US strategy in negotiations with Iran.