Kalshi contract traders doubt OpenAI will finalize a stake agreement with the Trump administration before 2024 closes.
Kalshi traders have shifted focus away from OpenAI’s proposed stake offer to the Trump administration, citing low confidence in a deal materializing before year-end. The skepticism follows reports that OpenAI sought to align with government interests amid regulatory scrutiny.
Recent market activity on Kalshi’s platform shows wagers favoring semiconductor and quantum computing sectors over OpenAI-related contracts. No formal agreement or timeline has been confirmed, leaving traders to weigh alternative macro bets.
Trading volumes in OpenAI-linked contracts have declined, reflecting diminished expectations for near-term government collaboration.