New Zealand exporters face currency headwinds despite global commodity price gains, with aluminium and wool leading annual increases.
ANZ’s World Commodity Price Index rose 0.7% month-on-month in May and 1.3% year-on-year, driven by sharp gains in wool, aluminium, and beef. Wool prices surged 75.3% annually, the highest since October 2011, while aluminium climbed 49.1% amid Middle East supply disruptions.
The NZD-denominated index fell 0.3% in May due to currency strength, offsetting global price increases for local exporters. Aluminium production in the Middle East remains 35% below pre-conflict levels, sustaining upward pressure on prices despite easing oil-linked inflation elsewhere.
Freight costs continue to absorb higher log prices, limiting gains for forestry exporters. Shipping disruptions and regional supply constraints are expected to persist, maintaining pressure on commodity markets.