A near-even split among economists on whether the RBNZ should hold or hike rates in July reflects deep uncertainty over inflation and demand.
New Zealand’s central bank faces a finely balanced decision at its July meeting, with economists evenly divided on whether to hold the official cash rate at 2.25% or raise it by 25 basis points. The NZIER Monetary Policy Shadow Board’s narrow preference for a hold underscores persistent uncertainty over inflation drivers and economic momentum.