In brief – Galaxy Digital has cut its odds of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 to 50%, down from 60% earlier this month and 75% in May. – The crypto market structure bill is running out of Senate floor time before the August recess, with a contested housing bill and an elections…
asure crowding the calendar. – One analyst argued that the lowering of the odds is “a matter of time delay rather than the rejection of the proposal’s actual content.” Galaxy Digital has cut its odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to a coin toss, warning that the U.S. Senate is running out of time to move the crypto market structure bill before its five-week August recess. “We are reducing our odds of CLARITY Act passage in 2026 to 50-50,” wrote Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s head of firmwide research, in a tweet Friday
The downgrade extends a steady slide. Galaxy pegged the odds at 75% in May, cut them to 60% on June 9, and has now landed at even money. Prediction market Polymarket is gloomier still, pricing 2026 passage near 49%, down from highs of 74% a month ago.
Thorn stressed that the problem is timing, not content. There is still no unified Senate text, no firm floor schedule, and a shrinking window before lawmakers scatter for the summer. Competition for floor time “intensified,” he said, after President Trump abruptly refused to sign a bipartisan housing bill until Congress passes the SAVE Act, a proof-of-citizenship elections measure.