TD Securities warns gold may fall further to $3,900 before rebounding to $5,350 next year amid higher rates and oil-driven inflation.
Gold prices dropped below $4,000 per ounce as rising US interest rates and a stronger USD weighed on the metal. Higher rates across the yield curve and inflation pressures from oil shocks are expected to push prices toward $3,900, a key support level, before any recovery.
The Federal Reserve’s restrictive stance, driven by persistent inflation fears, could extend gold’s decline by a few hundred dollars. TD Securities notes that Brent crude may rise to $90–110 per barrel, lifting inflation expectations and reinforcing the Fed’s hawkish bias.
A potential rebound to $5,350 or higher is projected for next year, contingent on easing oil pressures, lower yields, and a softer USD. Renewed investor and central bank demand could also support the recovery once inflation concerns subside.