Commerzbank highlights low US inventories and slow Strait of Hormuz traffic recovery as potential catalysts for a price reversal.
Oil prices, which have fallen sharply this week on expectations of normalized Middle East supply, may reverse course due to lingering risks. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains below typical levels, and US inventories are 7% lower than seasonal norms, adding upward pressure on prices.
Market optimism assumes a rapid recovery in Gulf region shipments, but data does not yet support this view. If transits fail to increase next week, skepticism could grow, potentially driving prices higher. OPEC output and shipping disruptions remain key variables.
The Brent forward curve has also tightened, with time spreads narrowing significantly amid the recent price decline. Analysts caution that current market expectations may be overly optimistic, leaving prices vulnerable to a rebound.