The bank sees a 30% upside for gold over 12 months, citing Fed policy shifts and structural dollar decline as key drivers.
UBS projects gold prices will climb to $5,200 per ounce within the next year, representing a roughly 30% increase from current levels. The forecast hinges on anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2027 and a weakening U.S. dollar over time.
Gold recently dipped below $4,000 per ounce for the first time since November, pressured by a stronger dollar and rising real yields. UBS views the current pullback as a buying opportunity, though near-term technical indicators suggest a trading range of $3,850 to $4,000.
Central bank demand, particularly from Poland and China, provides a structural floor for gold, but UBS notes macro catalysts like a Fed pivot or dollar reversal are needed for sharper gains. The bank recommends a mid-single-digit allocation for investors with a real asset bias.