Generative AI adoption may displace 9% of the US workforce over a decade, revised estimates show, citing productivity-driven labor disruption.
Goldman Sachs revised its forecast for US job displacement due to generative AI, projecting 15 million workers—over 9% of the workforce—could be affected over a 10-year adoption cycle. The update reflects historical trends where each 1% productivity gain from technology raises job destruction rates by 0.5-0.7 percentage points.
The estimate draws parallels to the late 1990s and early 2000s tech boom, suggesting similar labor market disruption. While short-term headwinds are expected, Goldman anticipates the US economy will generate new roles through increased specialization and AI-driven demand, offsetting losses long-term.