Crypto asset manager 21Shares abandons prediction of Bitcoin escaping its four-year cycle after BTC drops 52% from record highs.
Bitcoin slipped below $60,000 for the second time this month, trading at $59,781 after retreating 52% from its all-time high of $126,080. The decline prompted 21Shares to retract its earlier forecast that Bitcoin would break its four-year market cycle by 2026, acknowledging price patterns remain consistent with historical trends.
The firm noted that while the cycle persists, market dynamics have shifted. Institutional ownership via ETFs has softened drawdowns, with the current 50% decline far less severe than prior 80%+ bear markets. Bitcoin’s on-chain cost basis of $54,000 has held as support, avoiding capitulation levels seen in past cycles.
Despite ETF inflows, investment flows have fallen short of expectations, challenging 21Shares’ thesis that institutional adoption would disrupt traditional cycle behavior. The firm maintained its view that structural changes, including ETF demand, have altered market behavior, though not enough to break the cycle entirely.