BNY’s Geoff Yu highlights that IMM volume is concentrated in commodity currencies, with AUD, NZD and NOK leading recent adjustments.
NOK and CAD are seeing outflows linked to Oil sensitivity and modest Norges Bank tightening expectations, while NZD and AUD have underperformed since May
BNY sees scope for non‑energy commodity currencies to outperform, but prefers relative-value trades while Dollar strength endures. Commodity currencies lead IMM positioning “Measured by combined net flow scores and volumes, the largest adjustments occurred in commodity-linked currencies. AUD, NZD and NOK were the most actively traded currencies, while NOK, CAD, NZD and AUD all ranked among the top five G10 currencies by flow magnitude.
Combined with recent spot performance, the flows point to clear valuation themes emerging around the outlook for energy and commodities.” “Outflows from NOK and CAD are unsurprising. Both currencies are highly exposed to oil prices, and the prospect of a durable ceasefire argues for some derating. NOK is particularly vulnerable as the most overheld G10currency, while expectations for further Norges Bank tightening remain modest.” “By contrast, NZD and AUD have underperformed since early May.