The firm raised its 2024 forecast by 200 points, citing AI-driven earnings upgrades and geopolitical tailwinds, but flagged flash-crash risks.
JPMorgan increased its S&P 500 year-end target to 7,800, up from 7,600, reflecting a nearly 6% gain from current levels. The revision follows expectations of an AI-driven earnings surge and progress in U.S.-Iran peace talks, aligning with the firm’s “Blue Sky” scenario.
The new forecast implies a 29% year-over-year jump in 2026 earnings per share to $350. However, strategists warned of potential volatility, including a high probability of a flash crash amid speculative trading in secondary AI stocks. Market leadership is expected to remain concentrated in large-cap growth and direct AI plays.
Despite risks, the firm advised investors to view technical pullbacks as buying opportunities, citing a strong fundamental backdrop. The Federal Reserve is projected to hold rates steady through 2026 before hiking in 2027.