On-chain data suggests bitcoin could drop 15% or more to its realized price before establishing a market low.
Bitcoin may need to fall further to confirm a cycle bottom, with key support levels between $50,000 and $54,000. The realized price, currently at $53,457, has historically marked the final support during bear markets.
In past cycles, including 2011, 2015, 2018-2019, and 2022, bitcoin traded below its realized price before bottoming. Large whale cohorts hold cost bases around $49,000 to $54,300, reinforcing this range as critical.
Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average, near $62,400, is under scrutiny. A break below could shift focus to the realized price as the next support level.