Quick Read – The U.S.
Treasury issued a two-month sanctions waiver on Iranian crude, pushing Brent below $78 and WTI below $74 per barrel. – Iran previously exported over 2 million barrels daily, and rising supply could ease energy-driven inflation without forcing Kevin Warsh to raise rates. – Oil prices remain roughly 30% above pre-conflict levels, meaning any collapse in Iran peace talks could quickly reverse the market’s recent relief. – Inflation has been the market’s dominant concern
While investors spent much of the past year focused on artificial intelligence, earnings growth, and record-high stock prices, the conversation has been overshadowed by rising consumer costs and the Federal Reserve’s response. Energy prices sit at the center of that debate. Oil surged above $100 a barrel after the Iran war disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, helping push inflation expectations higher and increasing fears that the Fed could be forced to raise interest rates.
Now a surprising development may be changing that outlook. The U.S. government this morning formally waived oil sanctions on Iran for a two-month period as nuclear negotiations continue in Switzerland. The waiver remains in effect through Aug. 21, and the U.S.