The revised estimate reflects higher construction hours, material volumes, and cost inflation identified during a detailed project review.
BHP has raised its capital expenditure forecast for Jansen potash project’s stage two to $6.9bn, up from $4.9bn. The increase follows a comprehensive review of costs and scheduling, delaying first production to late FY31, two years later than initially planned.
The project was approved in October 2023 with an original $4.9bn estimate. In August 2025, BHP extended the timeline, prompting a deeper assessment of construction requirements, material needs, and cost escalation. Engineering progress stands at 83%, with overall completion at 16% as of May 2026.
BHP maintains its output target of 4.36 million tonnes per annum for stage two, aiming for combined production of 8.5mtpa. The updated capex is expected to preserve the project’s internal rate of return at consensus potash prices.