Analysts say inflation and supply chain disruptions from the Hormuz conflict will persist despite the strait’s reopening.
The U.S. and Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, easing immediate threats to global energy supplies after nearly four months of war. However, analysts warn that economic fallout, including higher inflation and supply chain disruptions, is already entrenched and will take months to unwind.
Oil prices fell to $80 a barrel Friday, down from a March peak of $118, as Persian Gulf crude flows recover faster than expected. Goldman Sachs revised its forecast, projecting Brent at $80 in late 2026 and $75 in 2027. Despite the relief, delays in freight flows and upstream price lags could prolong inflationary pressures in food and energy sectors.
The World Bank last week cut its global growth forecast to 2.5%, citing persistent economic headwinds from the conflict. Analysts note that natural gas and food prices typically lag upstream markets by three months or more, delaying full normalization.