Iraq’s oil minister states export normalization will be gradual, contingent on uninterrupted Hormuz transit amid lingering geopolitical risks.
Oil prices retreated after the Strait of Hormuz reopened under a US-Iran interim deal, easing immediate supply concerns. However, Iraq’s oil minister cautioned that a full return to pre-disruption export levels will be gradual and dependent on smooth transit conditions through the strait.
Analysts had anticipated a faster normalization of exports following the deal, but Iraq’s warning introduces a material qualifier. The 60-day negotiating window remains fragile, with Iran retaining authority over strait traffic and ongoing airstrikes in Lebanon threatening broader regional stability.
Markets initially reacted with relief, but the conditional nature of Iraq’s recovery timeline and persistent geopolitical tensions may limit further downside in oil prices.