Analysts forecast a 2025 oil surplus but see Middle East supply recovery and low inventories supporting prices near-term.
Analysts anticipate a significant oil glut in 2025 following the US-Iran deal, yet expect prices to remain supported. The agreement could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore over 13 million barrels per day of shut-in Middle East production, easing supply constraints.
Global inventories, excluding China, are critically low, which may drive refilling demand and underpin prices for months. Prior forecasts had warned of a sharper price drop amid easing geopolitical tensions, but inventory levels and supply recovery timelines complicate the outlook.
The deal’s durability remains uncertain, with long-term negotiations ahead. Markets are weighing the potential for sustained supply increases against persistent inventory deficits.