Global oil supply is projected to exceed demand by over 5 million barrels per day in 2027 as Middle East output recovers post-crisis.
The International Energy Agency forecasts a 5 million barrel per day oil surplus in 2027 as Middle East production rebounds following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Demand is expected to rise to 105.3 million barrels per day, while supply climbs to 110 million barrels per day, driven by an 8 million barrel per day output increase.
The surplus follows a period of severe disruption, with Middle East throughput dropping to 9.6 million barrels per day in May before recovering to 12 million barrels per day in June. The IEA noted that operational and political challenges, including mine clearance and transit disputes, could delay full recovery.
The agency suggested the surplus may allow countries to rebuild strategic reserves or adjust energy policies in response to recent geopolitical tensions.