Nearly all Japanese firms surveyed express concern over oil procurement despite a ceasefire, with delays in strait reopening extending supply risks.
Japan’s refining sector remains highly vulnerable due to its 94% reliance on Middle East crude, with 93% of those imports transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Any prolonged disruption could squeeze margins and elevate petrochemical feedstock costs, particularly for naphtha, a key input in plastics and automotive supply chains.
A recent survey of 215 Japanese firms revealed nearly half expect operations to take over six months to normalize post-ceasefire. While 17% anticipate a three-month recovery, 39% foresee a year-long delay, underscoring persistent supply chain fragility.
Firms are preparing to tap alternative sources and national reserves through late 2026, likely sustaining premiums for non-Middle Eastern crude. The physical reopening of Hormuz remains a complex process, even after diplomatic agreements, due to lingering minesweeping risks.