Bank warns upside risks dominate as low inventories and disruption premiums could push oil above $130 by year-end.
Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent crude at $80 by year-end and $75 in 2027, citing limited downside as markets have largely priced in supply recovery. The bank highlights asymmetric risks, with $50 of potential upside versus $20 downside if flows normalize faster than expected.
Current inventories remain low, and persistent disruption risks in the Strait of Hormuz sustain a premium. Demand recovery is expected to be swift but incomplete, with EV adoption in China capping growth by around 500,000 barrels per day through 2027.
If the strait fails to reopen fully, Brent could exceed $130 by year-end. Conversely, a faster reopening and demand losses could push prices to $60 in 2027.