Fed to leave rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%
The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% in a unanimous decision. Economic projections are likely to show higher inflation, slightly lower growth, and steady-to-lower unemployment.
The market’s main focus will be the dot plot, with expectations for no rate cuts in 2026 or 2027 and a more hawkish distribution of forecasts. Any indication of a future rate cut would be viewed as dovish, while projections showing hikes would be hawkish.
US retail sales for May are expected to rise by 0.5%, with the ex-Auto also at 0.5%. The USD is mostly higher, but lower vs the JPY and unchanged vs the CHF.