Uncertain timelines and Iran’s 60-day toll threat keep oil shipment disruptions a near-term risk, analysts say.
Reported progress on a US-Iran understanding has not eliminated risks around the Strait of Hormuz, where key details remain unresolved. A brief memorandum was agreed, but conflicting timelines for restoring oil flows and Iran’s threat to impose tolls after 60 days create ongoing uncertainty.
US officials suggest energy shipments may resume in 1-2 weeks, while maritime experts estimate 40-50 days. Even if trapped vessels begin moving, weeks are needed for cargoes to reach final destinations. Three Iranian oil tankers and two supply ships reportedly passed the US naval blockade this morning.
Iran states ships can transit freely during the 60-day negotiation window but plans to impose tolls afterward, a move the US opposes. Analysts warn incentives on both sides could still disrupt shipments, with carriers hesitant to return to the strait under a looming deadline.