May data shows smallest year-over-year decline in 18 months, with shipments up 3% month-over-month and projections for H2 growth.
Freight shipments may rebound in the second half of 2024 after 40 consecutive months of year-over-year declines, according to the latest Cass Freight Index. The May report showed a 1.2% year-over-year drop in shipments, the smallest decline since November 2022, with volumes rising 3% from April on a non-seasonally adjusted basis.
The index’s two-year stacked comparison fell 5.2%, the smallest decline since February 2024. Domestic intermodal volumes and improving spot market indicators drove the improvement, while inventories, tariff reductions, and a softer U.S. dollar supported demand. Cass projects a 1.8% year-over-year increase in shipments for the second half if seasonal trends hold.
Freight expenditures surged 7.5% year-over-year in May, the largest gain since late 2022, reflecting higher rates and fuel costs. The index rose 5.3% from April on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, signaling a potential shift in market dynamics.