Prediction market traders assign nearly even odds to a Tesla-SpaceX merger within a year, citing AI synergies and Musk’s leadership.
Traders on the Kalshi prediction market are pricing a 49% probability that Tesla and SpaceX will merge by May 1, 2027. The bet follows SpaceX’s recent IPO and long-standing speculation about consolidation under Elon Musk’s leadership.
Prior reports, including a May 27 CNBC article, indicated Musk had raised the merger idea internally. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives previously estimated an 80% chance of a deal, while SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell acknowledged potential synergies in AI and talent sharing.
Both companies rely heavily on artificial intelligence, and a merger could streamline resource allocation. Investors like Ross Gerber suggest the move aligns with Musk’s vision for an AI-driven conglomerate.