The bank projects a multi-year copper deficit and lifts 2026-2030 price targets by up to 10% annually.
Scotiabank increased its copper price forecasts, citing a structural supply deficit and rising demand. The bank now expects prices to average $5.95/lb in 2026, rising to $6.50/lb by 2030, with a near-term squeeze potential toward $7.00/lb. Spot prices currently trade at $6.12/lb.
The revision reflects long lead times for new mine development and steady demand growth, projected at 2.5% in 2026. The bank also raised its long-run incentive price to $5.00/lb from $4.50/lb, signaling tighter market conditions ahead.
Scotiabank highlighted copper miners as attractive investments, upgrading targets for names including First Quantum (FM) and recommending stocks like Ero Copper (ERO) and Freeport-McMoRan (FCX). The bank remains restricted on Hudbay Minerals (HBM).