Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux and colleagues note Brent has dropped sharply after the US–Iran MoU and reopening prospects for the Strait of Hormuz, with prices down 35% from April peaks but still above pre-war levels.
They highlight technical supports at $82/81, $78 and $75, and maintain a Brent forecast of $80 by end-2026 as oil flows normalise by January 2027
Oil reprices on US Iran breakthrough “Brent crude traded down to $82.7/b overnight, adding mild bull steepening impetus to govies as central bank rate hike expectations are pared back on both sides of the Atlantic.” “Technical levels are situated around $82/81, $78 and $75.” “Our house view assigned a probability of 35% for end of June re-opening of the SoH, oil flows normalising by Jan-27 and Brent trading at $80 by year-end.” “SG Brent forecast $80/b by end-2026 based end of June re-opening, oil flows normalise by Jan-27.” “The 200-DMA around $78 could be an important support.” Author