Since 1990, the S&P 500 has risen in 14 of 15 years when up over 5% by June 1, with a median second-half return of 12.7%.
The S&P 500 entered June up 7.7% year-to-date, marking the 16th instance since 1990 where the index gained more than 5% by June 1. Historical data shows a strong second-half performance in such years, with a median return of 12.7% and a 93% success rate.
In prior qualifying years, the index rose in 14 out of 15 occasions during the second half. The recent 3% decline on June 5 may have rattled investors, but past trends suggest such pullbacks often precede rebounds. Since 1990, the median 21-day return after a 3% single-day drop was 2.1%, while a 2% June decline saw a median 21-day return of 3.8%.
Short-term signals align with long-term momentum, reinforcing the potential for further gains. The index’s resilience amid volatility suggests investors may view dips as buying opportunities rather than warning signs.