NYU professor Aswath Damodaran estimates SpaceX’s valuation 28% below its $1.8 trillion IPO target, citing optimistic assumptions.
SpaceX will debut on the Nasdaq at a $1.8 trillion valuation, aligning with bullish Wall Street estimates and CEO Elon Musk’s projections. The company’s rapid expansion in rocket launches, satellite internet, and AI has fueled investor enthusiasm, pushing its IPO price to record levels for a private firm transitioning to public markets.
Valuation expert Aswath Damodaran, known for data-driven analysis, challenges the $1.8 trillion figure. Using SpaceX’s S-1 filing, he calculates a $1.3 trillion valuation, a 28% discount. Damodaran suggests the IPO price relies on assumptions that may overstate growth potential or underestimate execution risks in its launch, satellite, and AI segments.
The discrepancy highlights a divide between market optimism and conservative modeling. While $1.3 trillion remains a substantial valuation, Damodaran’s assessment could influence investor scrutiny ahead of the IPO, particularly among institutional buyers weighing long-term risks.